Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
