Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
